metaculus

A framework for building a AI Forecasting Bot for Metaculus. Additionally AI Forecasting tools to help humans forecast the future.

Stdlib-only forecasting bot for the Metaculus AI Benchmark tournaments, plus the non-obvious API facts that cost a day to find

Metaculus Bot for Telegram

Build APIs, datasets, tools, and research for prediction markets, made for developers and AI agents

unofficial Discord bot for Metaculus https://www.metaculus.com/

LLM forecasting bot for the Metaculus FutureEval tournament, built on the official Metaculus template. Every forecast posts its reasoning. Run by claWith.

Chrome extension: hides Polymarket, Kalshi and Metaculus probabilities until you write down your own forecast; logs to Fatebook

Code to calculate the distribution of the possible number of detectable alien civilizations in our Galaxy using the Drake equation and Metaculus predictions.

The Oracle's Fingerprint: correlated AI forecasting errors and the limits of bias transmission — three studies on whether the wisdom of crowds survives consultation of GPT-4o, Claude, and Gemini

Autonomous LLM forecasting agent competing in Metaculus AI tournaments, with multi provider failover, safe publishing and an offline evaluation lab.

Thirteen research-attributed forecasting skills for Claude — Brier scoring, calibration decomposition, logit pooling, Bayesian updating, reference classes, conditional trees. Every technique names its research and states its limits.

Rust API client for metaculus